Stephanie Guild, chief investment officer at Robinhood, told Full Signal host Phil Rosen that energy stocks have been her best hedge this year and that she is not ready to buy bonds with the 10-year Treasury yield around 5.2%.
She also said high earnings expectations are her biggest worry, while she sees opportunities in energy, health care, cybersecurity and beaten-down software and defense names.
I sat down with Guild at Robinhood's Hood Summit to ask how she is positioning with stocks near record highs, bond yields surging and the midterms approaching.
Why energy is still a hedge
Guild said "the best hedge has been actually investing in the energy sector," which she noted is one of only two sectors outperforming the S&P 500 this year.
She pointed to oil above $100 and record diesel prices as a reason she worries about corporate margins and future consumer prices.
She does not think investors should simply buy the sector fund now, since energy has already run so far this year. Instead, she said Robinhood's strategy keeps its allocation steady while rotating holdings, selling ExxonMobil and more recently buying EOG Resources.
She also named Diamondback Energy as a stock she likes, while stressing that none of it is a recommendation.
Why she is not buying bonds yet
When we recorded, the 10-year yield was about 5.2%. Guild said she is "personally not there yet" on bonds, even though some investors argue slower growth could send yields lower.
She said higher inflation from energy prices, heavy debt supply and a shift in who buys long-term Treasuries are keeping yields up.
Foreign buyers still favor the short end, she said, while pension plans and insurers now fill more of the long end and are more discerning because they have to care about yields.
She also said net new corporate bond issuance is running at about $3 trillion this year, more than the government, and that she can't see "a world in which interest rates drop a lot." She remains bullish on stocks, though not on every stock.
Earnings expectations and the midterms
"Earnings expectations are not low," Guild said. She cited expectations of more than 30% earnings growth in 2026, about 14% for 2027 and roughly 15% the year after, and said she is not sure the market will see double-digit growth for three more years.
She asked whether some of this year's demand was pulled forward by worries about tariffs, energy costs and shipping, and whether the biggest AI spenders will see returns on the timeline they expect.
Guild called the midterms a "dark horse" for markets, since a split government could mean less gets done and a shift in defense spending. For the seasonality case, read my look at why stock market bulls should love midterm election years.
Where Guild sees opportunities
Beyond energy, Guild said Robinhood's strategy bought Shopify ahead of earnings as a play on AI productivity gains, though she said it may not be the best new buy after the pop.
She also said she likes Nutanix and health care names including Gilead and Eli Lilly.
Her screen for beaten-down stocks starts with two buckets. "Torpedoes" are stocks that have fallen sharply but still show strong growth metrics, such as software, while "reset" stocks have seen earnings estimates cut, and she said those are mostly consumer companies.
In software, she said Adobe has not come back while Nutanix and ServiceNow have. In consumer, she said she would not recommend Lululemon yet, but she sees a turnaround case for Nike given its brand.
She also wondered aloud about defense names with weak sentiment but steady contracts, noting that Kratos "fell out of bed" after a strong start to the year. "I'm not saying it's a buy," she said.
The AI risks she watches and what she is avoiding
Guild said she still believes in the AI buildout but sees two risks. One is local opposition to data centers and higher electricity prices, and the other is an AI-agent failure large enough to make people want to slow things down.
She sees that second scenario as bullish for cybersecurity and said Robinhood's strategy owns CrowdStrike and Cloudflare.
The corner she would avoid is the hottest consumer staples names. She said Walmart is well run and Costco is beloved, but "everyone already knows that."
Listen to the full episode
Tune in to the full conversation with Stephanie Guild on YouTube, Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
For more on the bond market, read why stocks are ignoring bond yields surging to 19-year highs, and subscribe to the free Opening Bell Daily newsletter for a daily briefing on stocks, macro and Wall Street.
Opening Bell Daily is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. The views expressed are those of the guest, Robinhood manages investment strategies that may hold the securities discussed, and mentions of specific securities are not recommendations.