Good morning, investors. The Iran conflict has been the only macro story of the last month but Tuesday night reminded us why.

Investors are signaling that they are more than ready for the geopolitical uncertainty to stop.

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The US and Iran just agreed to a two-week ceasefire to pause a five-week war that had squeezed global energy supplies and rattled the geopolitical landscape.

In a Truth Social post, President Trump called it a "double sided CEASEFIRE" conditioned on Iran's "COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz."

Oil prices tumbled more than 20% and US stock futures surged to mark one of the sharpest overnight repricings of the war premium since the conflict began at the end of February.

Shortly after President Trump’s post, the New York Times reported the deal was approved by Iran.

Now, prior to that news, Tehran had initially rejected a temporary ceasefire and countered with a 10-point plan demanding permanent peace, sanctions relief and a $2 million fee per ship transiting the strait.

Trump called that plan "not good enough" on Sunday.

By Tuesday night he said it was "a workable basis on which to negotiate."

The announcement landed just a handful of hours after Trump warned on Truth Social that "a whole civilization will die tonight."

It also followed overnight US strikes on more than 50 military targets on Kharg Island, the hub that handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports.

The Pentagon hit bunkers and radar stations but reportedly left oil infrastructure untouched.

This is the fourth time in six weeks that the president has set a deadline to escalate strikes on Iran and then pulled back.

He issued a 48-hour ultimatum on March 21, postponed 12 hours before it expired, escalated threats on March 26, extended to April 6, pushed that to April 7.

Each cycle the rhetoric got hotter and the follow-through got softer.

As of this writing, it’s unclear how “open” the Strait really is and oil remains roughly 50% higher year-to-date.

That said, traders do seem to be positioned for a light at the end of the conflict.

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