Good morning, investors. The S&P 500 added $1.2 trillion in market value on Monday and the good news seems to be cascading in force.
The AI trade — as it has all year — tells the story.
Unstoppa-Bull
You can’t say that peace talks with Iran rescued the AI trade because there’s little about the stock market that needed rescuing.
Semiconductors surged after a US-Iran deal reopened the Strait of Hormuz not as a relief rally but as a continuation of a generational bull run. With the most obvious geopolitical threat shelved, AI stocks have nothing left to hold them back.
Among the winners:
Nvidia, +3.54%
Taiwan Semiconductor, +4.1%
AMD, +6.98%
Marvell, +10.43%
Micron, +10.84%
President Trump had announced late Sunday that the Iran deal was done, with a planned Friday signing in Switzerland.
Oil prices — another perceived headwind to asset prices — collapsed more than 4%.
The point is that through nearly four months of fighting, with the strait responsible for one-fifth of the world’s energy supplies largely shut, semiconductor stocks kept climbing.
It’s no fluke that two of the most popular proxies for the AI trade in the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) and the MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) are each up over 109% year-to-date.
The Iran conflict barely registers on the chart.

Think how resilient a theme must be to shrug off a seismic oil shock, a shipping blockade, and ongoing uncertainty tied to war.
That’s enough for markets to recognize that the AI trade has plenty of room to run.
What changes with a peace deal, assuming it holds, is just how rapidly the momentum can ramp up from here.
An agreement in the Middle East removes the biggest overhang that the bears have pointed to since February.
Plus, with the tail risk of an energy shock fading, any capital that investors hid on the sidelines can now rotate into the market with more assurance.
The most compelling destination for the new money is, of course, the same trade that’s been working all year.
The bulls have emerged victorious on Wall Street and in geopolitics.
The brakes are off.
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Market snapshot

Elsewhere
🏦 President Trump is giving Kevin Warsh room to reshape the Fed. He will chair his first FOMC meeting Wednesday, and people close to the matter say that the president will treat Warsh differently than Powell because he trusts him more. (CNBC)
🚢 The Strait of Hormuz is back in business. The US and Iran agreed that the passage will be toll-free for 60 days as part of the peace deal. That said, the two sides diverge on what happens after that period. (Yahoo Finance)
🚀 The SpaceX IPO raised a total of $85.7 billion. Underwriters exercised the “greenshoe” over-allotment, according to a new report. Brokers including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley had the option to buy an additional 83 million shares. (CNBC)
Rapid-fire
SpaceX is now up 35% since its IPO price (Yahoo Finance)
JD Vance said the Iran peace deal details still need to be stamped out but the US holds all the cards (CNBC)
Israel is reportedly alarmed about the US-Iran peace deal (WSJ)
US homebuilder sentiment tumbled in June and clocked in below expectations (Bloomberg)
Fox will buy streaming device maker Roku for $22 billion (CNBC)
United Airlines stock rallied to record highs on its first day of trading after the Iran deal (WSJ)
Small-cap stocks have doubled the large-cap S&P 500 this year (Opening Bell Daily)
On this day
🗓 June 16, 1903: Henry Ford and a group of investors signed the articles of association incorporating the Ford Motor Company with $28,000 in cash.
Last thing
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