Good morning, investors. Once again, stocks have proven their durability and resilience by storming back near record highs, shrugging off uncertainty in the Middle East as if it were just another news blip.

What comes after is anyone’s guess, but the numbers behind the market’s dip-and-rally suggest a steady momentum into earnings season.

The S&P 500 has officially erased every loss since the outbreak of the Iran conflict.

The benchmark stock index returned to levels not seen in six weeks on Monday, completing a six-week round trip.

That move erases a 7.4% drawdown that bottomed on March 27 and extends a rally that first kicked off with the US and Iran announcing tentative peace talks.

But even as the market declares that the conflict is over, President Trump and Iran’s leadership still have to figure out whether the ceasefire will hold.

Oil prices, however, still remain elevated well above pre-conflict levels.

Supply disruptions stemming from the Strait of Hormuz uncertainty will work their way through not only energy prices but fertilizer, commodities, chemicals and plastics.

Those disruptions, according to Morningstar chief US market strategist Dave Sekera, appear likely to drive inflation higher for several months.

In a note to clients, Sekera said he will specifically be paying attention to oil contracts for the front month May 2026 contract and then the June contract — the first of which falls just before the end of the two-week truce, the second being right before Memorial Day.

“These two contracts will be pricing in something slightly different as far as whether the negotiations start back up and are fruitful before the end of the truce or aren’t as fruitful and if the conflict heats back up,” Sekera said.

Historically, higher crude that spans multiple months feeds directly into inflation and can pressure corporate margins.

That puts the S&P 500’s reversal and the oil curve on the opposite sides of the same trade.

As much as equity investors may believe the worst of the conflict is over, oil traders will have the final word.

Quantify Funds is building actively managed funds that seek to pay weekly dividends from the performance of bitcoin, gold, and US stocks. 

$1 of ISBG gives $2 of total exposure to bitcoin & gold. 

Governments print. We stack bitcoin & gold.

📊 Goldman Sachs crushed earnings with record equities trading. The bank saw its second-highest quarterly revenue, while investment banking fees climbed 48% to $2.84 billion. (CNBC)

🚢 US military forces began blockading the Strait of Hormuz. After peace talks ended Sunday without an agreement, President Trump threatened drug-boat-style strikes on any Iranian ships coming near the blockade. (WSJ)

🛢 Chevron will expand its operations in Venezuela’s vast Orinoco Belt. This will include an asset swap to add an extra heavy crude area to its main project while returning an offshore gas and a crude area. (Reuters)

🗓 April 14, 2000: The Nasdaq Composite plunged 9.7% in a single session, one of the worst single-day drops ever and a jarring confirmation that the dot-com bubble had burst.

📩 Want to get in front of 207,000+ investors who get this newsletter and the 350,000 professionals who can access it on Bloomberg Terminals? Reply to this email and tell us why we should work together.

Partner disclosures:

ISBG uses Bitcoin, Gold, and Stock options and do not invest directly in bitcoin, gold, or stocks. The use of derivative instruments involves risks different from, or possibly greater than, the risks associated with investing directly in securities and other traditional investments. These risks include (i) the risk that the counterparty to a derivative transaction may not fulfill its contractual obligations; (ii) risk of mispricing or improper valuation; and (iii) the risk that changes in the value of the derivative may not correlate perfectly with the underlying asset, rate or index. Derivative prices are highly volatile and may fluctuate substantially during a short period of time. The use of leverage by the Fund, such as borrowing money to purchase securities or the use of options, will cause the Fund to incur additional expenses and magnify the Fund’s gains or losses.

The Fund is not suitable for all investors. The Fund is designed to be utilized only by knowledgeable investors who understand the potential consequences of seeking daily leveraged (2X) investment results, understand the risks associated with the use of leverage, and are willing to monitor their portfolios frequently. The Fund is not intended to be used by, and is not appropriate for, investors who do not intend to actively monitor and manage their portfolios. For periods longer than a single day, the Fund will lose money if the Target Portfolio’s performance is flat, and it is possible that the Fund will lose money even if the Target Portfolio’s market value increases over a period longer than a single day. An investor could lose the full principal value of his/her investment within a single day.

There is no guarantee the Quantify Funds ETFs will make weekly distributions and the amounts may fluctuate from week to week. Distributions may be comprised of option premiums, dividends, capital gains, and interest payments. To view both current and historical monthly estimates of ETF distribution composition, investors may view the 19a-1 notices available on each corresponding Fund's webpage. Distributions classified as return of capital will reduce an investor’s cost basis in Fund shares owned, which may result in higher taxes paid in the future when the Fund shares are sold, even if the shares are sold at a loss compared to the original investment. 

Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. Distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC.

Before investing you should carefully consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses.

This and other information is in the fund page within the website (www.quantifyfunds.com). Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.