Good morning, investors. A similar version of the same story keeps unfolding in markets.

A key company in the AI ecosystem reports record earnings, the stock falls, and investors debate whether it’s time to buy the dip.

Here we are again.

TSMC just posted its fifth record-smashing quarter in a row and the stock fell anyway.

In the eyes of investors, it didn’t matter that one of the world’s most critical chipmakers beat Wall Street’s estimates across the board and lifted its growth outlook.

Net profits surged 77% from a year ago to $22 billion, and management reiterated that demand for its products remains “extremely robust.”

The stock closed 2.3% lower not because of those numbers but because of how the budget changed:

The negative market reaction fits the pattern that has come to define the sector this summer.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF has tumbled 8% over the last month. Micron and Nvidia are each down double-digits from their highs.

Through it all the companies in question have unfailingly crushed expectations and smashed records.

Every earnings report out of the AI supply chain — including TSMC’s — confirms that demand is only accelerating and money is falling from the sky.

But despite seemingly unchanged fundamentals, investors appear less and less willing to buy into the boom they fueled the last two years.

Banner quarters and blowout numbers have become boilerplate and marginal news no longer provides the same juiced-up catalyst for asset prices.

One way to view this development is that investors are raising the bar on what constitutes “good news” in the AI economy, which could mean a more sustainable and rigorous boom over the long-haul.

At the same time, if rising capex ambitions continue to meet punishment in the market, hyperscalers and chipmakers alike will have to reconsider how freely they spend to stay ahead.

Even if the buildout doesn’t slowdown, the era of Wall Street rewarding it with no questions asked could be winding down.

SpaceX is public, trading on Nasdaq under SPCX.

Now there is a fund built for the daily move.

Meet SPCU, the Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SpaceX ETF (Cboe: SPCU). It seeks 200% of the daily performance of SpaceX stock.

SPCU is a leveraged single-stock ETF that resets daily, built for short-term tactical use, not buy and hold.

The wait is over.

🎯 The White House hit most Brazilian goods with a 25% tariff. The Section 301 action citing "unfair trade practices" could be stacked with another 12.5% duty from a pending forced-labor probe as soon as next week. (CNBC)

📊 June retail sales rose just 0.2% and missed the 0.3% consensus. The data was dragged by a 5.3% drop in gas station spending, while online sales jumped 1.9% amid Amazon's Prime Day. (CNN Business)

📈 UnitedHealth crushed earnings and raised full-year guidance. The insurer reported adjusted EPS of $6.38 versus the $4.90 consensus and lifted its full-year 2026 profit outlook to $19.50-$20.00 per share from a prior floor of $18.25. (Quartz)

🤖 Alibaba and Baidu shares rallied on an Apple AI partnership. The deal will bring Chinese-market AI features to iPhones in the mainland, giving both firms a foothold in Apple's next-generation consumer-AI rollout. (CNBC)

I sat down with macro strategist Jack Farley, the co-founder of the Monetary Matters Network. We discussed the semiconductor sell-off, the strongest bear case against AI, blowout bank earnings, and the specific stocks he’s buying right now.

Tune in on Spotify, Apple Podcasts or YouTube — and please leave a review if you find the episode valuable!

🗓 July 17, 1995: Bill Gates topped the Forbes World's Richest list for the first time with a net worth of $12.9 billion, up 60% from $8.1 billion the year before.

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