Happy Friday, investors. We’re closing out another week with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq at fresh records once again, and the Dow is back above the 50,000 mark.

The idea that “AI is the new macro” is showing no signs of slowing.

That said, in the last 24 hours more froth has entered the market.

Cerebras debuted on public markets to massive fanfare but the setup looks like a near-term trap for retail investors.

In the biggest IPO of the year so far, the chip company opened 89% above its $185 IPO price on Thursday before ultimately closing at $311.

But history says an IPO this hot is almost never a winning bet.

A new analysis from ProCap Insights found that across 15 highly-anticipated tech IPOs since 2015, the median name lost 16.6% in the six months after its day-one rally.

The five that traded more than 50% above their day-one open inside the first month — Rivian, Robinhood, Beyond Meat, Reddit, and Astera Labs — had a six-month win rate of zero and a median drawdown from peak of 58%.

Cerebras’ move followed the textbook IPO melt-up.

The previous IPOs that followed similar trajectories all fell dramatically from their peaks:

Among these hyped IPOs, the median company underperformed by 28 percentage points over the first year.

Arm Holdings is the only counter-example.

Its IPO popped just 10% on day one — the smallest figure in the analysis — before clearing its first-month peak after a blowout earnings report.

Cerebras' open, meanwhile, was nearly nine times the size of Arm's first-day rally.

The chipmaker will report its first earnings in August and that will mark its first true test as a public company.

And even though it’s facing an unfavorable historical pattern, Cerebras has a robust business and it’s timing with the AI boom could end up being perfect.

While a splashy IPO’s first day is usually a bad entry point for retail investors, that doesn’t mean the stock can’t compound for years to come.

Not only that, but with IPOs for SpaceX and Anthropic around the corner, Cerebras may be able to ride another promising, if not frothy, momentum trade as part of broader IPO enthusiasm.

🏦 Stephen Miran will step down from the Fed Board. This opens the door for Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman and completes Miran’s temporary appointment after being tapped by President Trump just a few months ago. (Yahoo Finance)

🤖 OpenAI and Apple are feuding, marking a frayed alliance. The two-year-old partnership could soon end, with the AI startup failing to see the upside from the deal so far and now preparing possible legal action, according to inside sources. (Bloomberg)

📈 Hedge funds are dominating the AI hardware boom. Shares in chipmakers and related equipment have given stock-picking funds their best month in decades, with Steve Cohen’s Point72 among the top winners. (WSJ)

I sat down with Ben Carlson, director of institutional research at Ritholtz Wealth, to unpack the data driving the AI trade, the absurd chip rally, bubble comparisons through history, lessons from Japan’s great crash after the 1980s, and more.

Tune in on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube.

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