Good morning, investors. Kevin Warsh holds his first central bank press conference at 2:30 PM today and Wall Street has spent the week bracing for a world where rate cuts don't come at all this year.

Let’s dive in.

Kevin Warsh will do nothing to interest rates on Wednesday but that’s why investors should hang on his every word.

Both his dot plot and first press conference could confirm markets’ current suspicion that the Fed's next move will be a hike, rather than a cut. That exposes the high-flying tech stocks underpinning the AI trade.

In May, markets assigned barely a one-in-four chance to a rate hike. Now CME data puts the odds for at least one hike before year-end at roughly two-in-three.

With inflation running near 4.2% and a labor market that’s still showing signs of resilience, investors have become more reluctant to bank on lower borrowing costs with every passing month.

It’s worth remembering, too, that Warsh spent most of his first Fed tenure voting for higher rates.

He’s also signaled that he wants to do his job like Alan Greenspan — fewer words, less forecasting, more old-fashioned.

That style threatens the AI trade, which has pushed indexes to record highs and single stocks like Micron and Marvell to triple-digit returns.

Importantly, Warsh does not need to hike rates this week to hurt growth stocks.

He only needs to raise the market-implied odds that he will.

One surprising dot or a hawkish sentence can reprice the entire market.

A dovish surprise from a hawkish situation is difficult to envision at this point, so the best case is tech merely maintains status quo.

The worst case is that the leaders of a top-heavy market start to sell-off.

SpaceX is public, trading on Nasdaq under SPCX.

Now there is a fund built for the daily move.

Meet SPCU, the Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SpaceX ETF (Cboe: SPCU). It seeks 200% of the daily performance of SpaceX stock.

SPCU is a leveraged single-stock ETF that resets daily, built for short-term tactical use, not buy and hold.

The wait is over.

🤖 SpaceX acquired AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion in stock. The Musk-led company filed the merger agreement with the SEC on Tuesday and shares of the newly public SpaceX surged double digits. (CNBC)

🛢️ Oil tumbled almost 6% to a three-month low. WTI crude settled at $75.95 a barrel after traders priced in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under the US-Iran framework. (Reuters)

🎯 The White House confirmed the US-Iran peace framework is signed but not yet delivered. Officials denied reports of a $300 million transfer to Tehran and pointed to a formal signing scheduled for Friday. (CNBC)

I sat down with Wall Street veteran Ben Emons, chief investment officer for FedWatch Advisors, to discuss the stocks he's most bullish on for the end of the Iran conflict, the parabolic AI trade, and why he likes the financial sector.

Tune in on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube.

🗓 June 17, 1930: President Herbert Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act into law, raising duties on more than 20,000 imported goods despite a public petition from over 1,000 economists urging a veto.

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