Good morning, investors. Another earnings Super Bowl come and gone, with Nvidia beating expectations after the bell on Wednesday.

The baseline expectation at this point should be good news. Fair to say Nvidia's earned that.

Yet the market nonetheless bites its nails and flip-flops all the way to the last moment before the results come due.

Nvidia did what Nvidia always does. 

The chipmaker again cleared Wall Street’s bar with room to spare, reinforcing its status as the market’s de facto proxy for the AI economy. 

The stock soared in after-hours trading immediately on the news to bring its 12-month gain above 54%.

For the latest quarter, Nvidia reported revenue of $68.1 billion, up 73% year-over-year and ahead of consensus estimate for $66 billion.

This marked its largest quarter-over-quarter revenue jump on record, and the 28th consecutive quarterly revenue beat.

Meanwhile, adjusted earnings per share hit $1.62, beating expectations for $1.54. 

Data center revenue rose 75% from a year ago, according to the company, and hyperscalers continue to buy up Nvidia’s chips at a staggering rate. 

Management signaled that demand remains robust, and continues to ramp up.

For the current quarter, Nvidia projected revenue of about $78 billion, another signal from the world’s largest company that the AI theme remains in its early innings.

That aligns with the bullish narrative that the massive capital expenditures of the last year is not speculative so much as foundational.

Two tensions continue to follow Nvidia, as they have for several years, despite robust earnings.

First is concentration risk. A small cohort of mega-cap customers still account for a bulk of its sales. 

The second is a question of sustainability — just how long can Nvidia maintain eye-watering growth rates and margins?

Any sign of a year-over-year slowdown could hit sentiment even if fundamentals don’t change. 

Then again, that’s the same question that Nvidia has made moot over multiple quarters. 

For now, it’s still up to the bears to make their case on Nvidia.

Every earnings cycle, skeptics — including heavyweights like Michael Burry — warn of various risks across peak demand, margin compression, circular financing. 

And at each opportunity, Nvidia answers with more revenue, a deeper backlog of orders and another bullish outlook on its technology and why it’s the most critical player in the most capital-intensive buildout in history.

That pattern doesn’t look like it will break anytime soon.

📈 Circle stock soared after crushing earnings. The company, which issues the dollar-pegged stablecoin USDC, exceeded analyst earnings by a landslide, with revenue up 77% to $770 million. (Barron’s)

🏘 Housing stocks tumbled after grim outlooks from builders. The S&P composite homebuilder index shed as much as 5%, with Lowe’s sharing a downbeat forecast for the year ahead on the housing market. (Bloomberg)

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