Good morning, investors. It’s Wall Street’s Super Bowl this afternoon with Nvidia set to report earnings after the bell.

I haven’t heard about any “watch parties” for the earnings call like we saw a couple quarters ago, likely due to the shaky and negative sentiment that’s emerged around AI to start the year.

Let’s unpack what to know.

Nvidia is set to report earnings as the only Magnificent 7 stock up more than 1% to start the year.

While its mega-cap peers have succumbed to the software and AI sell-off — jolted by this week’s viral bearish essay from Citrini Research — Nvidia remains on solid footing.

This divergence makes Wednesday results even more high stakes.

The market, as it tends to do each quarter, will read Nvidia’s earnings as a referendum on the entire AI economy.

To be sure, Nvidia has made a habit of crushing Wall Street estimates that predates ChatGPT.

The company has beat revenue estimates for 27 consecutive quarters, according to Bespoke Investment Group. It’s also surpassed earnings estimates for 12 quarters in a row.

Even though the company remains 9.1% below its record high, its relative strength against the rest of the Magnificent 7 is a testament to its longstanding dominance. 

(Shares of Microsoft, for context, have declined 29% from record highs.)

Even in Citrini’s doomsday recession outlook, Nvidia is still the biggest name selling institutional-grade picks and shovels. 

For the fourth quarter, here’s what Wall Street expects:

Again, this won’t be the first time that investors interpret Nvidia’s numbers as a proxy for the broader AI investment theme. 

A meaningful beat could juice optimism once again across AI-exposed equities, perhaps enough for sectors like software, financials, and real estate to shake off recent negative sentiment. 

But any hint of moderating demand or cooling business could stoke AI fears further — particularly during a stretch where Nvidia looks like the lone Big Tech stock that’s still climbing.

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🤖 AI is already reshaping JPMorgan, according to Jamie Dimon. He said the banks plan to shift employees to new roles as automation accelerates: “We have displaced people from AI, and we offer them other jobs.” (CNBC)

📈 AMD stock surged after a deal with Meta. Even as the Facebook parent dipped, AMD rose more than 8.7% after news broke of its long-term deal for Meta to purchase 6 gigawatts of GPUs. (Barron’s)

📉 Bitcoin’s on pace for its worst month since 2022. The crypto is down more than 23% in February, and if that holds it would mark its worst month since June 2022, when crypto winter kicked off with the implosion of TerraUSD. (Bloomberg)

🗓 February 25, 1791: The First Bank of the United States was chartered by lawmakers, championed by Alexander Hamilton as the first US Secretary of the Treasury.

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