Good morning, investors. Almost every media headline today is focused on what’s happening (and what is not happening) in Iran.

There is plenty of coverage tracking the play-by-play in the Middle East.

But for our purposes, I thought we would instead dig into some telling bullish patterns that are suddenly showing up in the most valuable stock in the world.

Nvidia is flashing a signal it’s only shown twice in the past decade.

The chipmaker closed higher for the tenth consecutive session Tuesday, capping a 19% run from its March 30 low.

Since 2016, only two prior 10-day win streaks match the current run.

And both preceded explosive multi-month rallies.

According to a ProCap Insights analysis, the first occurrence happened in December 2016.

Nvidia traded flat for about three months after its winning streak ended before surging 80% over the next 12 months.

Then in November 2023, shares similarly moved sideways for several weeks before surging 48% over three months and 190% over the next 12 months.

The setup today suggests bears think twice before betting against Nvidia.

While that last bullet sounds troubling, rallies that historically have extended tend to move through a re-rating first before estimates catch up.

That was the sequence in 2017 and 2024. It could well be the same now.

To be sure, two specific types of booms in a decade is a small sample.

Plus, Nvidia entered both of those prior rallies at a fraction of its current $4.7 trillion market cap.

For a company that size to move dramatically higher requires astronomical capital absorption that, arguably, has never been tested before.

Still, the bullish signal remains valid and historically rare.

Investors looking for a moment to cut their AI exposure may want to hold off.

🏦 Bank of America and Morgan Stanley earnings are due. Both banks are expected to report higher earnings per share and revenue from a year ago, following up on mixed earnings from their peers JPMorgan, Citi and Wells Fargo from Tuesday. (Barron’s)

📊 US producer prices rose less than expected in March. That fueled an early stock rally, with the headline number up 0.5% over the previous month, below the forecast of 1.1%. (Yahoo Finance)

🛢 Oil prices tumbled yet again. Brent crude dropped 4.6% to settle below $95 on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate fell almost 8%. Markets are positioning for an end to the Iran conflict, which could kick start the replenishing of millions of barrels a day. (Bloomberg)

🏙 We’re bringing investors together in in New York. Our friends at Finimize are hosting a stellar line up with Anthropic, Robinhood, NYSE, SoFi, VanEck, as well as our very own Anthony Pompliano. Grab a ticket and join us at 6pm on May 19th.

I sat down with veteran investor Eric Jackson to unpack his bullish calls on OpenDoor, Better Home & Finance, and other names, plus we discussed the software stocks he is betting against in the current SaaSpocalypse.

Tune in on Spotify, Apple Podcasts or YouTube.

🗓 April 15, 1865: The New York Stock Exchange closed after President Lincoln's death and stayed shut through April 21, marking one of the longest unplanned closures in the 19th century.

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