Good morning, investors. The Iran conflict continues to be defined by start-and-stop diplomacy that’s seemed to adhere to a strict weekend schedule.

The sequence of events fits the narrative that President Trump indeed pays attention to the stock market, with officials sharing most bad news during weekends and leaving more upbeat headlines for trading hours.

Either way, the S&P 500 looks set up for a sharp turn higher.

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The S&P 500 just notched three consecutive weeks with at least a 3% gain.

That has only happened two other times in 76 years, and both preceded extraordinary rallies, according to a new analysis from ProCap Insights.

As the chart illustrates, when this happened in September 1982, the benchmark index returned 13.1% over the next three months, 25.1% over six months, and 34.5% in the following year.

Paul Volcker had broken the back of inflation and interest rates were collapsing.

Then in June 2020, the index gained 7.3% in three months, 15.8% in six, and 32.3% in a year.

That rally came after a 34% COVID drawdown and the Fed was flooding the financial system with liquidity.

That puts the average 12-month forward return across both instances at 33.4%.

Each signal preceded a multi-year bull market that dwarfed typical cyclical expansions.

The broader bull run that began in 1982 went on to return 229% over five years, while the 2020 occurrence returned 114% over the following 21 months.

To be sure, each of those prior signals emerged from deeply oversold conditions.

In 1982, the S&P 500 traded below 10x earnings and had just bottomed after a decade of weak returns.

In 2020, the index had collapsed from 3,386 to 2,237 in 23 trading days before reversing.

Both prior signals were born in moments of despair, not strength.

Meanwhile, Friday's close at 7,126.05 marked a fresh all-time high.

This is the first time the three-consecutive-3%-week signal has ever fired while the market was already at a record, rather than recovering from a bottom or a crash.

Plus, the catalyst for the latest rally has been optimism for the Iran conflict paired with falling crude prices. The peace talks and negotiations driving those variables continue to fluctuate by the day.

It’s possible that history rhymes and the next 12 months deliver similar returns to 1982 and 2020.

But it’s also within reason to expect that the same signal flashing through weakness doesn’t hold the same weight at the height of a bull market.

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🎯 Trump dispatched JD Vance to Islamabad for more peace talks. Jared Kushner will join the delegation, and the existing 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is scheduled to expire Tuesday night. (WSJ)

🛢 Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again on Saturday. The US refused to lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports, and the IRGC fired on at least two tankers trying to transit the waterway. (CNBC)

📉 Netflix sank nearly 10% Friday after weak earnings guidance. Co-founder Reed Hastings will exit the board, too, which rattled shareholders. First-quarter revenue of $12.25 billion beat the $12.18 billion consensus, but the company reiterated full-year 2026 guidance when investors were looking for a raise. (Yahoo Finance)

🗓 April 20, 2020: West Texas crude oil futures for a coming delivery settled at negative $37.63 per barrel, the first and only negative settlement in the contract's 37-year history.

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