Good morning, investors. Wall Street is throwing a party on news that could be reversed within days.

While the knee-jerk reaction isn’t surprising in the context of the last 12 months of trading, it’s worth remembering that relief rallies on geopolitical updates tend to be fast and fickle.

The Dow just secured its best trading day since Liberation Day.

Each of the major US stock indexes gained more than 2% and oil prices collapsed after President Trump announced an ostensible two-week ceasefire with Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The one-day reaction effectively eliminated the geopolitical risk premium that had built up over the last five weeks of conflict.

Indeed, the mechanics of the rally all make sense.

Falling oil prices mean:

Those variables helped cruise and airline stocks surge in tandem with oil’s sharp decline.

Yet the ceasefire itself remains fragile.

Shortly after the truce, other countries in the Middle East reported attacks.

Meanwhile, late Wednesday, Iran’s parliamentary speaker took to social media to accuse the US of violating the ceasefire.

Separately, the deal hinges on a safe and complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

It isn’t yet obvious that Iran is following through on this detail, given that ship traffic in the strait hasn’t ramped up.

Despite those risks, though, markets so far are acting like the geopolitical uncertainty is actually over.

Whether that optimism survives two weeks of touch-and-go diplomacy and accusations remains to be seen.

Quantify Funds is building actively managed funds that seek to pay weekly dividends from the performance of bitcoin, gold, and US stocks. 

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Governments print. We stack bitcoin & gold.

📊 Meta debuted its first AI model built under new chief AI officer Alexandr Wang. The closed-source model powers the Meta AI chatbot immediately and is said to match frontier-lab performance with ten times less compute than Llama 4. Meta stock soared. (Axios)

✈ Delta Air Lines beat earnings estimates and the stock jumped. It posted record revenue of $14.2 billion, even as fuel costs rose 88% since late February. United, Southwest and American all surged on the oil drop. (CNBC)

🤖 Companies replacing workers with AI have lagged the S&P 500. Nine of the 10 companies that have explicitly blamed AI for layoffs have underperformed the market since the day they made the announcement. (ProCap Insights)

🗓 April 9, 2025: President Trump paused his "reciprocal" tariffs on every country except China after market turmoil sent 30-year Treasury yields surging 54 basis points in three days.

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ISBG uses Bitcoin, Gold, and Stock options and do not invest directly in bitcoin, gold, or stocks. The use of derivative instruments involves risks different from, or possibly greater than, the risks associated with investing directly in securities and other traditional investments. These risks include (i) the risk that the counterparty to a derivative transaction may not fulfill its contractual obligations; (ii) risk of mispricing or improper valuation; and (iii) the risk that changes in the value of the derivative may not correlate perfectly with the underlying asset, rate or index. Derivative prices are highly volatile and may fluctuate substantially during a short period of time. The use of leverage by the Fund, such as borrowing money to purchase securities or the use of options, will cause the Fund to incur additional expenses and magnify the Fund’s gains or losses.

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