Good morning, investors. It’s the start of a new quarter, and already it’s looking like markets are in for a more upbeat three-month stretch than the last one.
As always, the data tell the story.
End with a bang
Wall Street shook off its bear market fears with its best trading day in 10 months.
On the last day of the worst quarter for stocks since 2022, the S&P 500 climbed 2.9%, the Dow finished more than 1,100 points higher and the Nasdaq surged 3.8%.
Markets turned higher after a pair of reports:
President Trump said he was willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed
Iran leadership said the country had “the necessary will to end the war”
Meanwhile, oil prices tumbled to take the single biggest headwind off equities from the quarter.
Still, the damage through the first three months of the year has been sizable.
The S&P 500 remains almost 5% lower year-to-date, and it’s hovering well below its typical levels for this time of year on average.
This does not include Tuesday’s sharp rebound (Chart courtesy of Exhibit A)
Technology stocks took the worst of the sell-off, caught between inflation concerns, AI disruption, and a broader rotation into other sectors.
Energy stocks, for their part, notched their best quarter on record.
Tech has been the weakest sector in the S&P 500 this year (Chart courtesy of Exhibit A)
Investors have been waiting for an off-ramp since the Iran conflict began in February. Tuesday’s market response suggests investors can now see one.
Whether it holds depends entirely on the legitimacy of those two reports that catalyzed the rebound as well as the next steps for the Strait of Hormuz.
It’s true that one good day doesn’t change a rough quarter.
But the price action does confirm that markets are ready to move on the moment they are given permission.
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Market snapshot
Elsewhere
🏦 McCormick and Unilever combined into a $65 billion food giant. McCormick is acquiring Unilever's foods division in a cash-and-stock deal, with Unilever shareholders retaining a 65% stake in the merged entity. (Yahoo Finance)
🏦 Treasury yields declined as traders began pricing out the possibility of a Fed rate hike. Bond markets responded to de-escalation signals on Iran and the quarter's weak performance with investors coming around to the no-hike outlook. (CNBC)
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Interview
I sat down with Jannick Malling, co-founder of Public — one of the largest investment brokerages in the world — to discuss the debut of AI agents inside portfolios, how agentic workflows can make traders more profitable, and how sentiment is shifting among independent investors.
Tune in on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts.
Rapid-fire
Brent crude logged record 55% monthly gain for March (CNBC)
Nike stock dropped despite beating on earnings and reporting a tariff impact (Barron’s)
Private equity borrowed $94 billion in 2025 to fund payouts (Bloomberg)
The US sent a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East (WSJ)
A new paper from Google warned of quantum computing risks to bitcoin (WSJ)
US gasoline reaches $4 per gallon for first time since 2022 (CNBC)
The economy’s biggest strength has turned into a confusing risk (Opening Bell Daily)
Microsoft stock closed its worst quarter since the 2008 crisis (CNBC)
On this day
🗓 April 1, 1976: Apple Computer Company was incorporated by Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, and Ronald Wayne, starting with a few hundred dollars in combined capital. Apple went public four years later.
Last thing
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