Phil Rosen at the Silvia Investor Summit on AI Stocks, the Midterm Bull Market and Why Tech Is Cheap

I took the stage at Silvia Investor Summit in New York to make the case why tech stocks are still cheap, unpack the data driving midterm seasonality, and share the stocks I’m bullish on right now.

Buying the S&P 500 today is a bet on technology, and history says the midterm calendar gives this AI bull market more room to run.

Most of this year, Wall Street told a story about a broadening rally.

But as I put it on stage, "this is a single bet on technology, that’s what buying the S&P 500 is."

Tech is about 40% of the index, and as of October 8 I noted it accounted for roughly 11 points of the S&P 500's 13% gain this year.

Energy has rallied on the Iran conflict and higher oil, but at about 3% of the index it barely moves the needle.

None of that strikes me as a bearish sign.

For most of 2026, oil and stocks have moved in opposite directions. Stocks bottomed in March, right when oil peaked after the Iran conflict began.

Since then, each new oil spike has hit stocks less. The market is discounting how long the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, and investors simply care more about AI.

When we asked the room when the US last bombed Iran, not one hand went up.

Meanwhile the S&P 500 notched what I counted as its 28th record high of the year.

Whoever wins the midterms, the calendar favors investors.

The year after a midterm is historically the strongest of the four-year presidential cycle, with about a 17% average return.

The fourth quarter of a midterm year is also the best fourth quarter of the cycle, averaging about 6% since 1950, roughly double the others. I dug into that pattern in a recent note titled Midterm election years bring the S&P 500's best fourth quarters.

A typical midterm year is roughly flat by now, and we're up 13%.

Going back to 1950, stocks have averaged a 31% gain from the midterm-year low, and the S&P 500 bottomed near 6,400 in March.

The bear case points to big tech spending about 70% of operating profits on capex, roughly 70 cents of every dollar. I understand the dark fiber comparisons, but I don't buy them.

Valuations tell a different story.

I noted that tech is trading near 2019 levels relative to the S&P 500, so tech hasn't been this cheap against the broader market since before the pandemic, and the market is telling you that Nvidia is very cheap.

The real risk is a company like Meta or Amazon announcing it will pull back on spending.

I'd trust the people running those businesses over outside commentators, and I expect hyperscalers to spend $5 trillion on AI over the next five years.

My portfolio is boring.

It includes Eli Lilly, Marvell, Micron, the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) and Bitcoin, among other holdings.

Eli Lilly combines the GLP-1 boom, AI and a data center business, and I noted earnings growing at a robust pace. EWY is mostly Samsung and SK Hynix, two of the top memory makers alongside Micron, so it's a slightly less crowded way into the memory trade.

The best Full Signal call so far came from Jordi Visser, who named Micron his favorite stock at $89 almost two years ago.

Plenty of investors tell me they want to lock in a 10-year yield above 5%. That doesn't do anything for me when equities and crypto offer far more upside.

If the dollar keeps getting debased and fiscal discipline keeps slipping, "you just buy a hard asset" like Bitcoin, gold or land, and set it and forget it.

Tune in to the full conversation from the Silvia Investor Summit on YouTube, Spotify and Apple Podcasts, and follow me on X at @philrosenn.

For more on the AI trade, read Only two S&P 500 sectors are beating the index this year, and subscribe to the free Opening Bell Daily newsletter for a daily briefing on stocks, macro and Wall Street.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Views and stock opinions are those of Phil Rosen, and market figures are as stated by Phil Rosen at the time of recording on Oct. 8, 2026.