Good morning, investors. President Trump said last night in his primetime address that there are still some weeks left in the military operation in Iran.

That is sure to keep oil and stock markets volatile for the near future.

Still, the respite over the last two days has seen crude prices and stocks moving in opposite directions for a reason.

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The war premium on oil looked like it was coming off Wednesday and investors responded.

With speculation building for peace in Iran, US crude prices fell below $100 a barrel during Wednesday’s trading session, raising hopes that it would mark the start of a round-trip journey back to pre-war levels.

Stock market sectors reacted in kind in the last trading session:

In fact, energy was just one of two S&P 500 sectors to finish in the red.

That rotation is just what you’d expect from a market that’s been pinned down by an energy shock and getting new reasons for optimism.  

Historically, oil has functioned as a leading indicator for stock prices.

When crude prices go up, gas prices follow shortly after.

That acts as a tax on the US consumer.

Disposable income comes under pressure, recession chatter starts to swirl, and media headlines compound the problem.

Indeed, at the height of the Iran conflict, Brent crude topped $120 a barrel and the data confirmed it as the largest oil shock on record.

National gas prices, meanwhile, surged above $4 this week for the first time since 2022.

Typically once the geopolitical noise winds down — which seems to be happening now — investors quickly return their attention to earnings and valuation multiples.

During past Middle East conflicts, stock market bottoms often coincided with the high-points for crude prices.

To be sure, the next several weeks remain up in the air.

The Strait of Hormuz still isn’t open.

Iran and US officials continue to exchange claims about next steps.

Markets, however, are nonetheless pointed squarely away from energy and back toward everything that the conflict disrupted.  

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🚀 Intel will pay $14.2 billion to buy back Apollo's 49% stake in its Ireland chip factory. The deal reclaims full control of Fab 34, the company's high-volume facility for Intel 4 and Intel 3 processors. It sent shares up about 10% Wednesday. ()

📉 Nike warned sales will decline for the rest of the calendar year. That includes a 20% drop in China this quarter. The stock fell double-digits as Nike’s CEO acknowledged the turnaround is taking longer than expected. (Investing.com)

🎯 The FDA approved Eli Lilly's Foundayo as the only oral GLP-1 weight loss drug with no meal or water restrictions. The once-daily orforglipron pill joins Novo Nordisk's Wegovy as one of two approved oral GLP-1 medications. (CNBC)

I sat down with JP Morgan Asset Management's chief ETF strategist Jon Maier to discuss the boom in active ETF flows versus passive, how clients are repositioning for geopolitical uncertainty, the case for derivative income and the sudden shift to a stock picker's market.

Tune in on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube.

🗓 April 2, 2007: New Century Financial, the nation's second-largest subprime mortgage lender, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Its collapse was one of the first concrete signals of the subprime crisis.

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Partner disclosures:

ISBG uses Bitcoin, Gold, and Stock options and do not invest directly in bitcoin, gold, or stocks. The use of derivative instruments involves risks different from, or possibly greater than, the risks associated with investing directly in securities and other traditional investments. These risks include (i) the risk that the counterparty to a derivative transaction may not fulfill its contractual obligations; (ii) risk of mispricing or improper valuation; and (iii) the risk that changes in the value of the derivative may not correlate perfectly with the underlying asset, rate or index. Derivative prices are highly volatile and may fluctuate substantially during a short period of time. The use of leverage by the Fund, such as borrowing money to purchase securities or the use of options, will cause the Fund to incur additional expenses and magnify the Fund’s gains or losses.

The Fund is not suitable for all investors. The Fund is designed to be utilized only by knowledgeable investors who understand the potential consequences of seeking daily leveraged (2X) investment results, understand the risks associated with the use of leverage, and are willing to monitor their portfolios frequently. The Fund is not intended to be used by, and is not appropriate for, investors who do not intend to actively monitor and manage their portfolios. For periods longer than a single day, the Fund will lose money if the Target Portfolio’s performance is flat, and it is possible that the Fund will lose money even if the Target Portfolio’s market value increases over a period longer than a single day. An investor could lose the full principal value of his/her investment within a single day.

There is no guarantee the Quantify Funds ETFs will make weekly distributions and the amounts may fluctuate from week to week. Distributions may be comprised of option premiums, dividends, capital gains, and interest payments. To view both current and historical monthly estimates of ETF distribution composition, investors may view the 19a-1 notices available on each corresponding Fund's webpage. Distributions classified as return of capital will reduce an investor’s cost basis in Fund shares owned, which may result in higher taxes paid in the future when the Fund shares are sold, even if the shares are sold at a loss compared to the original investment. 

Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. Distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC.

Before investing you should carefully consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses.

This and other information is in the fund page within the website (www.quantifyfunds.com). Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.